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Real-time alerts on unusually confident prediction market bets
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Running live since 23 Apr 26 · seeded at $10,000
The beta-test opens a position on every alert at the price it printed, sizes it at five per cent of the running bankroll, and closes at ninety-five cents or market resolution. No positions are executed; nothing here is real money. Figures below reflect live operation since 23 Apr 26 — nothing before the launch date is included.
Current hypothetical bankroll
| Market | Side | In at | Target | Stake | Confidence | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2026 meeting? Economics24 Jun 26 | yes | $0.76 | $0.95 | $549.74 | Low | 8h ago |
Economics24 Jun 26 | yes | $0.76 | $0.95 | $578.68 | Medium | 14h ago |
Economics21 Jun 26 | yes | $0.78 | $0.95 | $551.85 | Medium | 2d ago |
Economics18 Jun 26 | yes | $0.80 | $0.95 | $580.89 | Medium |
| Market | Side | In | Out | Confidence | Outcome | P/L | Closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Commodities05 Jun 26 | no | $0.47 | $0.95 | High | Target hit | +$544.20 +100.0% | 22 Jun 26 |
Commodities04 Jun 26 | no | $0.54 | $0.95 | Medium | Target hit | +$424.33 +74.1% | 16 Jun 26 |
Politics |
| 6d ago |
| no |
| $0.78 |
| $0.95 |
| Low |
| Target hit |
+$106.05 +20.5% |
| 12 Jun 26 |
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2026? Politics11 Jun 26 | no | $0.79 | $0.95 | Low | Target hit | +$93.25 +19.0% | 12 Jun 26 |
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2026? Politics11 Jun 26 | no | $0.80 | $0.95 | Low | Target hit | +$81.65 +17.5% | 12 Jun 26 |
Economics24 May 26 | yes | $0.80 | $0.00 | Medium | Lost | −$591.08 −100.0% | 31 May 26 |
Commodities26 May 26 | no | $0.67 | $0.95 | Medium | Target hit | +$226.29 +40.3% | 28 May 26 |
Financials23 Apr 26 | no | $0.30 | $0.95 | High | Target hit | +$1,066.67 +213.3% | 18 May 26 |
Financials27 Apr 26 | no | $0.50 | $0.95 | High | Target hit | +$418.00 +88.0% | 18 May 26 |
Financials18 May 26 | no | $0.60 | $0.95 | Medium | Target hit | +$257.95 +56.7% | 18 May 26 |
Economics11 May 26 | no | $0.80 | $0.95 | High | Target hit | +$78.97 +17.5% | 11 May 26 |