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Real-time alerts on unusually confident prediction market bets
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Proof of signal · 15 months
We ran 148 separate backtests across 15 months of public Kalshi trade history to find the most reliable insider signal — sweeping every size threshold, price band, hold window, exit rule and confidence filter against 1,580 markets and 3,969,509 individual bets. From all that research, one signal emerged. This is how it performed.
The signal keeps its hit rate as the reaction window slips — what erodes is the price. The table below is the whole case for the first hour being the only hour that matters.
| Reaction window | Events | Hit rate | Per trade | 15-month | Annualised |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Instant (ceiling) | 43 | 91% | +24.0% | +64.9% | +49.2% |
| +30 min | 42 | 91% | +11.8% | +26.6% | +20.7% |
| +1 hour | 41 | 90% | +14.0% | +31.6% | +24.7% |
Reaction window · measured from the moment the alert fires
Every one of the 43 qualifying events from the backtest window, ranked by return. Click a market to view it on Kalshi.
| # | Market | Side | Entry | Bet size | Held | Return | Confidence | Category |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2026-03-18 | no | $0.35 | $14,457 | 35 min | +169% | High | Elections |
| 2 | 2026-02-21 | yes | $0.52 | $25,338 | 1.6 d | +81% | Medium | Climate and Weather |
| 3 | 2026-03-10 | no | $0.53 | $15,900 | 17.9 h | +77% | Medium | Economics |
| 4 | 2026-03-15 | yes | $0.54 | $14,925 | 1.4 h | +74% | Low | Entertainment |
| 5 | 2026-03-15 | yes | $0.56 | $11,817 | 40 min | +68% | Medium | Entertainment |
| 6 | 2026-04-12 | yes | $0.60 | $12,000 | 7.1 h | +65% | Medium | Economics |
| 7 | 2026-03-15 | yes | $0.59 | $16,692 | 4.8 h | +59% | Low | Entertainment |
| 8 | 2026-02-24 | no | $0.62 | $30,524 | 6.3 h | +52% | Medium | Mentions |
| 9 | 2026-02-24 | no | $0.63 | $12,186 | 5.9 h | +49% | Medium | Mentions |
| 10 | 2026-02-24 | no | $0.63 | $13,295 | 5.9 h | +49% | Medium | Mentions |
| 11 | 2026-04-08 | no | $0.65 | $16,250 | 1.2 d | +45% | Medium | Economics |
| 12 | 2026-04-18 | yes | $0.67 | $13,271 | 1.2 d | +40% | Medium | Economics |
| 13 | 2026-02-16 | yes | $0.68 | $13,052 | 1 min | +38% | Medium | Financials |
| 14 | 2026-02-25 | no | $0.68 | $28,303 | 37 min | +38% | High | Mentions |
| 15 | 2026-03-16 | yes | $0.70 | $32,922 | 22 min | +34% | Medium | Entertainment |
| 16 | 2026-02-25 | yes | $0.71 | $11,320 | 2 min | +32% | Medium | Mentions |
| 17 | 2026-02-25 | yes | $0.71 | $12,632 | 2 min | +32% | Medium | Mentions |
| 18 | 2026-02-25 | yes | $0.72 | $10,147 | 2 min | +31% | Medium | Mentions |
| 19 | 2026-03-07 | yes | $0.73 | $14,179 | 8.5 d | +29% | Low | Entertainment |
| 20 | 2026-03-18 | no | $0.73 | $10,419 | 9.3 d | +29% | Medium | Politics |
| 21 | 2026-02-22 | yes | $0.74 | $11,552 | 3.0 wk | +27% | Medium | Entertainment |
| 22 | 2026-02-27 | yes | $0.75 | $20,584 | 28 min | +25% | Medium | Financials |
| 23 | 2026-03-13 | yes | $0.75 | $11,250 | 2.9 d | +25% | Medium | Entertainment |
| 24 | 2026-02-25 | no | $0.76 | $19,623 | 36 min | +24% | High | Mentions |
| 25 | 2026-03-14 | yes | $0.76 | $15,200 | 1.7 d | +24% | Low | Entertainment |
| 26 | 2026-03-14 | yes | $0.76 | $15,200 | 1.7 d | +24% | Low | Entertainment |
| 27 | 2026-03-15 | yes | $0.77 | $15,400 | 3.1 h | +22% | Medium | Entertainment |
| 28 | 2026-03-15 | yes | $0.77 | $32,164 | 1.9 h | +22% | High | Entertainment |
| 29 | 2026-03-15 | yes | $0.77 | $23,100 | 13 min | +22% | Medium | Entertainment |
| 30 | 2026-03-04 | yes | $0.78 | $11,617 | 4.4 d | +21% | Low | Elections |
| 31 | 2026-03-10 | yes | $0.78 | $11,700 | 5.3 d | +21% | Low | Entertainment |
| 32 | 2026-03-16 | yes | $0.78 | $28,745 | 2 min | +21% | Medium | Entertainment |
| 33 | 2026-03-16 | yes | $0.78 | $78,000 | 2 min | +21% | High | Entertainment |
| 34 | 2026-03-16 | yes | $0.78 | $49,255 | 2 min | +21% | Medium | Entertainment |
| 35 | 2026-03-16 | yes | $0.78 | $78,000 | 2 min | +21% | High | Entertainment |
| 36 | 2026-03-03 | yes | $0.79 | $33,979 | 5.0 d | +19% | Medium | Elections |
| 37 | 2026-03-14 | no | $0.79 | $11,060 | 1.1 d | +19% | Medium | Entertainment |
| 38 | 2026-02-21 | yes | $0.80 | $15,569 | 19 min | +18% | High | Mentions |
| 39 | 2026-03-11 | no | $0.80 | $21,482 | 3.9 h | +18% | Medium | Economics |
| 40 | 2026-03-03 | no | $0.71 | $23,532 | 6.8 d | −100% | Low | Politics |
| 41 | 2026-03-06 | no | $0.40 | $15,280 | 4.0 d | −100% | Medium | Politics |
| 42 | 2026-03-10 | no | $0.55 | $13,748 | 2.9 wk | −100% | Medium | Economics |
| 43 | 2026-03-27 | yes | $0.74 | $10,768 | 1.3 d | −100% | Low | Politics |
Past behaviour of the feed does not guarantee future behaviour. The live record — updated as the detector runs — is at the live alerts page, and the compounded-bankroll beta-test is at the beta-test ledger.